Marc Lynch on a potential "Mousavi effect."

In his blog at Foreign Policy, Marc Lynch asks Could there be a Mousavi Effect? Lynch notes that regimes would have to rethink their Iranian policies if a conciliatory leader replaces Ahmedenejad. Iran's regional power won't shrink and its bargaining position with the US isn't going to undergo an immediate shift to ceasing forward progress on a nuclear energy program. A story in FP yesterday, As Iran Votes, All Quiet on the Western Front, examined Western governments' silence on the Iranian election. I think they know that any chest beating on MA or implicit support of Mousavi could work against Mousavi's campaign. Besides, as noted below and in the NYT, Mousavi has powerful allies in Iran supporting his campaign, specifically Rafsanjani. He doesn't require a Tehran event featuring Obama.

Lynch comments on Arab states, but not on Israel. If MA is gone, and a smoother Mousavi takes his place, it will rob Bibi of his primary villain for insisting on a joint US-Israel "Iran First" policy. If Mousavi wins, he isn't likely to initiate meteoric policy shifts. He might make a better public figure and, possibly, willing to alter Iran's course enough to sate the US. Reagan needed a Gorbachev and Obama might require a Mousavi at this moment, especially with a US backed government in Lebanon. Time will tell, but a fresh face could go a long way in assisting US policy aims in the Middle East.